As we move through 2026, global equities are expected to post moderate gains, supported by solid earnings growth, though valuation concerns persist. For investors, geopolitical developments, AI-related capital expenditure monetization, and concentration risks are key factors. The current Fed rate-cut cycle should support equities, with Asian markets potentially able to ease further given elevated real rates. In this environment, we recommend a barbell strategy focused on quality growth and income to navigate potential volatility.
We remain neutral on global equities, mainly the US, as elevated valuations and heavy concentration in a few mega-cap technology names limit broad market upside despite still-robust earnings growth. However, we remain constructive on Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, particularly in North Asia, supported by a weaker US dollar and a more dovish Federal Reserve. Further easing by the Fed would give Asian central banks greater flexibility to lower interest rates, which in turn could further support regional market sentiment. We maintain a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.
The recent Xi–Trump meeting at the APEC summit marked a “transactional truce” in US–China relations, easing trade tensions and halting the momentum toward economic decoupling. This development sets the stage for a more stable geopolitical environment heading into 2026. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps in October to 3.75–4.00%, with markets expecting one more cut to bring the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75% by end-2025, though future moves remain data-dependent. US equities continue to draw support from robust technology earnings, but elevated valuations may limit upside potential. While concerns about a sustained US government shutdown persist, markets have largely discounted its impact given past precedents. In Asia Pacific, improved liquidity could offer some tailwinds, though global growth and policy uncertainties may weigh on sentiment. We maintain a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.
Globally, the Fed has cut rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25% amid labour market weakness, with market consensus expecting two more cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75% by year-end 2025. That said, future cuts remain data-dependent, in our view. US equities remain supported by strong technology earnings growth, though elevated valuations could limit upside. While concerns over a potential US government shutdown persist, markets have largely discounted the risk given its historically limited impact. Asia Pacific markets may benefit from improved liquidity, but global growth and policy uncertainties may weigh on sentiment. We recommend a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.
Globally, the US market outlook remains cautiously optimistic into late 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending and easing labour tightness, though inflationary pressures linger. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated rate cuts could begin in September, potentially lifting equities, but stretched valuations—highlighted by the Warren Buffett Indicator—warrant caution. In China, August delivered a solid rally as exports and high-tech sectors underpinned growth. Policy signals and supply-side reforms aim to address overcapacity and stabilise profitability, but weak domestic demand and execution risks remain key challenges. We recommend a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.
The U.S. has reached tariff agreements with several key partners, including Japan, Korea, most ASEAN countries, the EU, and the UK. However, the tariff discussion deadline with China and Mexico has been extended, while Canada and India face higher tariffs. We view the overall trade environment as still uncertain, especially since major trading partners like China have yet to reach a resolution—making the eventual outcomes particularly important. On the monetary front, the Fed remains cautious about rate cuts, citing the need to assess the inflationary impact of tariffs. Our outlook for global equities remains cautious, as sentiment is expected to remain sensitive to policy signals from major economies. While there are selective opportunities—particularly in sectors supported by long-term structural trends—a disciplined and selective investment approach is essential amid ongoing uncertainty. Maintaining flexibility and staying responsive to potential market dislocations will be critical to navigating the rest of 2025 effectively.
