Tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran have escalated significantly during Donald Trump’s second presidency. The first major escalation happened in June 2025, when Israel launched large-scale strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Iran responded with waves of missiles and drones targeting Israel, leading to a brief 12-day conflict. The US later joined with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, showing its willingness to directly intervene to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The confrontation flared up again in February 2026, when the US and Israel carried out another coordinated round of strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets. While markets usually react with short-term fear, we believe the most likely outcome is a prolonged period of ongoing conflict rather than a full-scale war. In this environment, a barbell strategy balancing high-quality growth exposures with income-oriented assets remains well suited to navigating bouts of volatility.
Phillip Fund Focus
Phillip Fund Focus February 2026
Equity markets are poised for moderate, selective gains in 2026, as resilient earnings help offset elevated valuations and concentrated leadership. Investors remain attentive to geopolitical risks, the payoff from sustained AI investment, and policy uncertainties, particularly in the U.S. With the Fed well into an easing cycle, liquidity conditions are supportive, while parts of Asia still have room to ease amid high real rates. A barbell strategy balancing high-quality growth with income-oriented assets remains well suited to navigating potential volatility.
Phillip Fund Focus January 2026
As we move through 2026, global equities are expected to post moderate gains, supported by solid earnings growth, though valuation concerns persist. For investors, geopolitical developments, AI-related capital expenditure monetization, and concentration risks are key factors. The current Fed rate-cut cycle should support equities, with Asian markets potentially able to ease further given elevated real rates. In this environment, we recommend a barbell strategy focused on quality growth and income to navigate potential volatility.
Phillip Fund Focus December 2025
We remain neutral on global equities, mainly the US, as elevated valuations and heavy concentration in a few mega-cap technology names limit broad market upside despite still-robust earnings growth. However, we remain constructive on Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, particularly in North Asia, supported by a weaker US dollar and a more dovish Federal Reserve. Further easing by the Fed would give Asian central banks greater flexibility to lower interest rates, which in turn could further support regional market sentiment. We maintain a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.
Phillip Fund Focus November 2025
The recent Xi–Trump meeting at the APEC summit marked a “transactional truce” in US–China relations, easing trade tensions and halting the momentum toward economic decoupling. This development sets the stage for a more stable geopolitical environment heading into 2026. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps in October to 3.75–4.00%, with markets expecting one more cut to bring the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75% by end-2025, though future moves remain data-dependent. US equities continue to draw support from robust technology earnings, but elevated valuations may limit upside potential. While concerns about a sustained US government shutdown persist, markets have largely discounted its impact given past precedents. In Asia Pacific, improved liquidity could offer some tailwinds, though global growth and policy uncertainties may weigh on sentiment. We maintain a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.
Phillip Fund Focus October 2025
Globally, the Fed has cut rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25% amid labour market weakness, with market consensus expecting two more cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75% by year-end 2025. That said, future cuts remain data-dependent, in our view. US equities remain supported by strong technology earnings growth, though elevated valuations could limit upside. While concerns over a potential US government shutdown persist, markets have largely discounted the risk given its historically limited impact. Asia Pacific markets may benefit from improved liquidity, but global growth and policy uncertainties may weigh on sentiment. We recommend a barbell strategy through 2025, combining quality growth opportunities with defensive income assets to navigate potential volatility.